The Presidential Agenda

In the 1990s, the manifest pull of domestic and foreign policies on Presidential decision-making, and the politics that surround it, was plain as day. Has the choice between the two really been forgotten or invisible since 9/11? I want to say that for the last eight years, domestic and foreign interests were subsumed under a newly expanded  national security rubric. Is that the case?  It’s worth considering as Obama and his team make their decision on next steps for Afghanistan. In The New Republic today, Washington Post columnist and Georgetown faculty E.J. Dionne, Jr., asks whether Obama should “let Afghanistan trample his domestic agenda”:

WASHINGTON–At a White House dinner with a group of historians at the beginning of the summer, Robert Dallek, a shrewd student of both the Kennedy and Johnson administrations, offered a chilling comment to President Obama.

“In my judgment,” he recalls saying, “war kills off great reform movements.”

The American record is pretty clear: World War I brought the Progressive Era to a close. When Franklin D. Roosevelt was waging World War II, he was candid in saying that “Dr. New Deal” had given way to “Dr. Win the War.” Korea ended Harry Truman’s Fair Deal, and Vietnam brought Lyndon Johnson’s Great Society to an abrupt halt.

Omnivore 05/10/09

What I Saw At the Afghan Elections, Peter W. Galbraith, Washington Post

Evaluating Galbraith’s Dissent, John Western, Duck of Minerva

Security Advisor Calls Troop Increase McChrystal’s Opinion, Joseph Berger, New York Times

The Distance Between ‘We Must’ and ‘We Can’, James Traub, New York Times

Who Are “The Deciders”?, David Sirota, Salon

Obama Furious at McChrystal, Alex Spillius, Telegraph

Path to a Pashtun Rebellion, Seth Jones, Washington Post

Secret Agents’ Memorial Unveiled, Paul Moss, BBC News

Ground Truths at the AfPak Channel [UPDATED]

As of today, I’m a contributor at Foreign Policy magazine’s excellent AfPak Channel, edited by Peter Bergen and Katherine Tiedemann of the New America Foundation. My initial blurb is on David Martin’s 60 Minutes interview with COMISAF, General Stanley McChrystal, and a response to Michael O’Hanlon’s comments in the New York Times on the lack of face time between Obama and McChrystal. Stay tuned: I’ll be writing more about “The Two NATOs”, Fobbitism, and Afghanistan.

I’m writing on UK time right now; I’ll add direct links as soon as the piece is up (after our North American cousins get done with their morning coffee…).

UPDATE:  It was just posted – you can read it here.

The Smartest Man In the Room

I’ve been a Holbrooke skeptic for years, unimpressed with his public responses to Bosnia-Herzegovina’s persistent failure to thrive. He faced years of criticism for the General Framework Agreement for Peace, an imperfect document that may have been the least bad of several possible outcomes of Yugoslavia’s disintegration. The GFAP, more colloquially known by the name  of one of the two places – Dayton (the other was a little town in France called Paris – you may have heard of it) – where it came into being, according to Holbrooke, was a sound plan. The failure, he repeated on several occasions, was in the implementation, a process during which he was conspicuously absent and for which he showed no sense of personal responsibility.

George Packer’s profile of Holbrooke in last week’s New Yorker is a fascinating exercise in contextualization, painting the career diplomat as a creature of privilege, ambition, and drive shaped not just by his role in the Balkans during the 1990s and now Afghanistan, but principally in Vietnam in the 1960s, where he cut his then junior teeth on the problems of state and war. I’m no less skeptical of the man now than before I read the profile – an inherent distrust of queue-jumpers and privilege, maybe – but it does put things into perspective, and I can certainly admire his intellect and dedication to service. 

There was a line in Packer’s article  – a Holbrooke quote – along the lines of the smartest man in the room not always being the rightest about things. That struck me as a pretty profound observation in its own right. Harper’s has now dredged up from its archives a Holbrooke essay on the subject originally published in 1975. In it, he took a hard swipe at the tyranny of quantification that held sway in McNamara’s Washington. It’s still relevant today. No matter how often or loudly politicians and generals deny that they’re focused on numbers as measures of success, it’s still what they demand in practice. The thirst for native-knowing advisors is strong these days, too, so one would hope that that’s an indication of progress in how we do things… but – to take one example – given how cultural knowledge has been reduced to a “human terrain” of digital cartography and data points, my reflex is to think there’s a pathology at work that insists on cybernetizing common sense and knowledge, a condition that runs counter to intuitive, gut level insight. 

Hobrooke, c. 1975:

…the smartest man in the room is not always right. The truism may have seemed all too obvious to some people, while others may have seen in it a logical contradiction: the rightest man in the room, they might say, is by definition smart. Regardless of semantics, I think that there is a real point to all this: Vietnam was not a special case, and in Washington smart men tend to put down people whom they regard as less smart with little regard for the substance of those people’s views. The way the government works, speed gets rewarded more than deliberation, brilliance more than depth.

Omnivore 02/10/09

The Smartest Man in the Room, Richard C. Holbrooke, Harper’s Magazine

Who’s Afraid of a Terrorist Haven? Paul R. Pillar, Washington Post

Should US Focus on Al Qaeda Havens? Kim Ghattas, BBC News

A Showdown in Waziristan: Tackling a Taliban Haven, David Ignatius, Washington Post

The Waziristan Wild Card, Imtiaz Ghul, AfPak Channel/Foreign Policy

Identity and Trust in Covert Networks, Drew Conway, Zero Intelligence Agents

UK Strategy and Defence Policy – Strategy Unit Replies, David Betz, King’s of War