Omnivore 01/10/09

Towards a New Strategic Concept For NATO, Klaus Wittman, NATO Defense College

The Evolution of Armed Groups, David H. Sacko et al., SSRN Conflict Studies Abstracts

Analyzing Australia’s Public Sphere Initiative, Palantir Staff, Analysis Blog/Palantir Government

HASC Assessment of the Human Terrain System, Editors, Small Wars Journal

Pentagon Pushes For Unblinking Surveillance, Christian Lowe, Defense Tech

Surveillance State “A Good Thing”, Brian Wheeler, BBC News

Obama and McChrystal Don’t Talk? Good, Says Army Historian, Noah Schachtman, Danger Room/Wired

Omnivore 25/09/09

UK Strategy & Defence Policy: Have Your Say, David Betz, Kings of War

The Army Wants Your Comments, Robert Haddick, Small Wars Journal

A Real Plot and Real CT, Bernard Finel, BernardFinel.com

Crossfire Forces Wardak Farmers Off Land, Habiburahman Ibrahimi, Afghan Recovery Report/IWPR

Yet Another “Bribe The Tribes” Pundit, Joshua Foust, Registan.net

Storm Warnings on the Petraeus-ometer, Thomas Ricks, Best Defense/Foreign Policy

Legitimacy and the Afghan Army, Steve Coll, Think Tank/The New Yorker

White House Seeks To Avoid Another Vietnam, Tim Reid, The Times

Masters of Chaos Thrive on Bombs and Charity, James Hider, The Times

The Front Line in Somalia, Jeffrey Gettleman, At War/New York Times

Sanctuary, Reloaded

Alright, there’s a pretty animated back-and-forth going on between Ex, Bernard Finel, and the pros at the new go-to-blog on COIN issues, Ink Spots, on whether or not a larger troop commitment to Afghanistan is actually going to fix anything. Quite a bit of it digs into sanctuary/safe haven issues, which of course gets my attention.

Finel, to my relief, is talking good sense on the subject, too, so if anyone out there is listening, go read it. I’d tell Finel so, too, in his comments section, if it wasn’t for the fact that comments are apparently by invitation only – try as I might, I can’t get past the username/password log-in requirement  that keeps popping up.

I also can’t really afford the time to weigh in right now because I’m, well,  on a deadline to get a feature on militant sanctuaries in to Janes Intelligence Review.  I promise to weigh in by the end of the week.

Who Quips Best, Wins

More from the blogosphere on Rory Stewart, who may or may not have designs on 10 Downing Street. But first: why is an interview with him that was published at the end of July only getting blogplay now? Odd.

His public displays of expert-itis have apparently tickled some funny bones. The passages in question come from Emily Stokes’ interview with Stewart, published in the Financial Times on 31 July, and from his more recent comments in Senate hearings yesterday.

Stewart, in July, on driving a car off a cliff as policymaking analogy: “It’s like they’re coming in and saying to you, ‘I’m going to drive my car off a cliff. Should I or should I not wear a seatbelt?’ And you say, ‘I don’t think you should drive your car off the cliff.’ And they say, ‘No, no, that bit’s already been decided – the question is whether to wear a seatbelt.’ And you say, ‘Well, you might as well wear a seatbelt.’ And then they say, ‘We’ve consulted with policy expert Rory Stewart and he says …’”

Stewart, yesterday, on cat-beating as Afghanistan strategy:  “We’re beating the cat,” Stewart said, “and when you say, ‘Why are you beating the cat?’ you say, ‘It’s a cat-tiger strategy.’ But you’re beating the cat because you don’t know what to do about the tiger.”

Spencer Ackerman reports that Stewart “has one advantage over his fellow witnesses” at the Senate hearings: “he’s better with quips.” Matthew Yglesias writes “you shouldn’t just listen to the guy who has the best jokes, but I think these are good points.” Dan Drezner thought the cliff-driving image was “really funny” and  “true a fair amount of the time”, but he wasn’t  “sure that metaphor holds up all of the time.” His alternative:

From the policymaker’s perspective, getting outside advice is like trying to figure out which railroad track to take if you’re driving a train.  There are three options ahead, and for myriad reasons each of the possibilities carries some risk.  So you go place an emergency phone call to the head of Harvard’s Department of Railroad Studies to get a recommendation.  His advice?  “Why don’t you go off-track?”

“Sometimes,” Drezner suggest, “the outside advisor is right to make policymakers question core assumptions.” But “sometimes a policymaker has neither the time nor the political capital to go back to first principles.  Sometimes they just need to know what is the least bad policy option.  And I guarantee you that having an academic tell them, “they’re all bad policy options” is of no use whatsoever in that moment.”

That’s fair. For Drezner’s analogy to be  true-to-life, though, said policymaker would be directing his query on railroad issues to a more appropriate source of subject matter expertise. Like, say, the Department of Maritime Statistics.

Meanwhile, there was this one about the drunk looking for his car keys under the lamp post because that’s where the best light is…

NATO’s Strategic Concept

Speaking of neuteredineffective concepts in international relations… this, from the NATO website:

NATO will formally launch the process leading to the new Strategic Concept of the Alliance at a major security conference in Brussels. The Conference – taking place under the authority of the NATO Secretary General, Jaap de Hoop Scheffer – will also mark the beginning of a dialogue with the wider public. The event, to be held at the Palais d’Egmont in Brussels on the 7th July 2009, will be attended by the NATO Secretary General designate, Mr. Anders Fogh Rasmussen, and will bring together a broad range of representatives from Allied and Partner governments, NATO structures, international organizations, civil society, including parliaments, the corporate sector, NGOs, think tanks, academia and the media.

The Secretary General will give the introductory address. Other speakers include the former U.S. Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright; the IAEA Director General, Mohamed ElBaradei; Supreme Allied Commander Transformation, General James Mattis; former EU Commissioner António Vitorino; the Chairman of the EU Military Committee, General Henri Bentégeat; the Executive Director of the UN World Food Programme, Josette Sheeran; the Chief Executive Officer of ENI, Paolo Scaroni; and the Chairman of Lloyd’s of London, Lord Levene of Portsoken.

The aim of this Secretary General’s conference on July 7th is to formally launch the process leading to the new Strategic Concept and begin a dialogue between NATO and a wide range of experts from the strategic community as well as the broader public. The conference will examine how the Alliance relates to the rest of the world, as part of a wider network of security actors. It will also look at NATO’s role in addressing new threats and challenges.

At the Summit in Strasbourg and Kehl on 4 April 2009, NATO Heads of State and Government tasked the Secretary General to develop a new NATO Strategic Concept. The current Strategic Concept was approved at the Washington Summit in 1999. The Summit also tasked the Secretary General to convene and lead a broad based group of qualified experts who will lay the ground for the new Alliance Strategic Concept. This will be done with the active involvement of the North Atlantic Council.

The Strategic Concept is the authoritative statement of the Alliance’s objectives and provides the highest level of guidance on the political and military means to be used in achieving them. It also describes NATO’s fundamental security tasks and is the basis for the implementation of Alliance policy as a whole. It is therefore, one of the key policy documents of the Alliance. The process leading to the new NATO Strategic Concept will engage all Allies in a major intellectual exercise and will examine all aspects of NATO in the run-up to the next summit.

A detailed programme of the conference can be viewed here. The entire event will be filmed by NATO and streamed live on the NATO Website .

TV networks can obtain the live feed from the conference via EBU bookings in Geneva, and copies of it can be obtained subsequently via the NATO TV/Radio unit in Brussels (Point of Contact : Mr. Jean-Marc Lorgnier, +32.2.707.5006). The key interventions of the conference will be available the next day on the NATO Internet television.

High-definition photographs of the event will be available throughout the day via the NATO Website. No media opportunities are foreseen beyond the arrangements detailed above.

The Strategic Concept is a big deal, but it’s only as good as its ultimate interpretation and implementation. That means the “intellectual exercise” needs be sufficiently grounded, robust and comprehensive to enable Allied Command Operations (ACO) – the military pragmatists who actually run NATO operations – to get on with their jobs. As with the previous two iterations, I don’t expect that this round of wanking discussion will result in any great changes. That said, there have been a few small changes in geopolitics in the intervening years: Russia’s chokehold on European energy issues, for one, and its willingness to flex strategic into its near abroad, for another. Oh, and that pesky little question of state sanctioned (if not operated) parahackers… and, errrr, that little counterinsurgency thing in, ahem, Afghanistan. Baseline: I hope that the policymakers note that state and non-state threats ebb and flow, and that the overall character of the Strategic Concept isn’t just shaped by flavor of the month security threats.